LARGELY, PROBABLY: Is the autism epidemic a myth?
Autism diagnoses are way up in recent decades, writes psychologist Adam Omary in a Washington Post op-ed. But there is no “autism epidemic.”
Autism diagnoses rose by a factor of five, from 67 to 322 cases per 10,000 children, from 2000 to 2022, reported the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in April, he notes. But “this dramatic rise may be entirely driven by children with mild or no significant functional impairment,” according to a large-scale study based on CDC data, Omary writes. “Between 2000 and 2016, there was a 464 percent increase in diagnoses among children with no significant functional impairment whatsoever,” while there was a “20 percent decrease in the prevalence of moderate or severe autism.”
Omary believes children who once would have been called “quirky” are now being diagnosed with mild autism.
Many studies use data from parent-reported surveys in counts of “suspected cases” of autism, he writes. One popular survey asks parents if their child questions such as: “Would rather be alone than with others,” “Has difficulty making friends,” and “Is regarded by other children as odd or weird.”
Abigail Shrier argues in her 2024 book, Bad Therapy, that child psychiatry has drifted toward overdiagnosis, Omary writes.
I’d add that a spectrum covering everything from people unable to function in society or even care for themselves, all the way to Elon Musk is too broad to be very meaningful.