September 30, 2026

WHAT ELSE ARE THE FOREIGN POLICY GRAYBEARDS MISSING? The Parade of Hormuz Horribles Fizzles Out.

The news out of the Strait of Hormuz is pretty straightforward: The Islamic Republic of Iran has all but lost whatever control it once had over the maritime traffic flowing through that contested choke point. “Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded this month to around their highest level since the war began in February,” the Wall Street Journal reported. “Shipments via Hormuz and bypass routes were delivering just under 80% of their prewar regional flows as of last week, according to tracker Kpler.”

That’s just about where the U.S. wants energy exports out of Hormuz to be. After all, the whole point of the blockade is to ensure that Iranian exports never make it to market in the first place. In that sense, U.S. policy in the region has succeeded. Iranian outbound flows are basically at zero.

Since mid-August, the Trump administration has maintained that the blockade, and its efforts to protect shipping through the strait’s southern Omani channel, is bearing fruit. At the time, the claim met with some understandable skepticism. But, as I wrote then, it made sense that the inventories that Trump officials had described were invisible to trackers. They wouldn’t become visible until they’d successfully evaded Iran’s dragnet. Now, six weeks later, “It’s clear that Washington’s figures were substantially correct,” former Bush administration official Michael Allen observed. “As many as 22 million barrels may have passed through the strait in 48 hours over the weekend, compared with about 20 million a day before the war.”

If the community of foreign-policy observers has internalized the news that Iran is losing control of the strait, they have not yet wrangled with the development’s implications. We can speculate about these implications by reviewing the claims made by those who, mere months ago, not only anticipated that Iran’s control of the strait would persist indefinitely but also thought that it represented a greater geostrategic lever for Tehran than even a deployable atomic weapon. . . .

If the sequence of events that these and many, many other foreign-policy analysts forecast over the late spring and summer came to pass, it would represent a strategic disaster for the U.S. But since it hasn’t, what are the consequences?

Don’t rely on the people who got it wrong to tell us.

Posted at 8:30 am by Glenn Reynolds

TWENTY MINUTES INTO THE FUTURE:

Tweet concludes, “We are getting our butt kicked here — companies are refusing cash to stay in Canada now….. and they’re openly violating agreements and just leaving.”

Posted at 8:22 am by Ed Driscoll

HERE’S HOW THAT SPACE PROGRAM IS COMING ALONG:

Key quote: “The shift is deliberate: commanders would get faster, probabilistic warnings even if the first measurements are less precise, then see the track automatically tighten as more sensor data arrives.”

Posted at 7:49 am by Stephen Green

GREAT MOMENTS IN DOUBLE STANDARDS: Kings reporters caught thirsting over Ben Simmons, Zach LaVine in wild hot-mic moment: ‘I like lightskins.’

New Sacramento Kings guard Ben Simmons and his teammate Zach LaVine received an awkward welcome from several reporters during the team’s media day.

A live stream of the Kings’ press conference caught a few women in the room speaking about the players in between interviews. One reporter was seemingly asking which player had been speaking the podium.

“Ben Simmons. Ben Simmons was, that’s what comes with being Ben Simmons. Cringe. Cringe!” another woman responded.

“He’s lucky he’s so fine,” one reporter said.

“He’s a good looking dude! I didn’t notice, his skin is so smooth. I was like, damn, no tattoos?” said another.

One male reporter said that that former Golden State Warriors guard Jordan Poole was the woman’s type, to which the woman said, “Allegedly, I like lightskins, I guess.”

I’m sure the media would be equally laid back if the genders were reversed:

Posted at 7:45 am by Ed Driscoll

DISPATCHES FROM AL-BRIṬĀNIYĀ: Essex supermarket has sex-segregated checkout lines.

“The scene irritated English people, who say they are now forced to obey the rules of Islamist migrants in their own country.”

Well, I’ve been warning about this for years, but of course, such warnings were “Islamophobic.” In Muslim countries, non-Muslims are expected to conform their behavior to Islamic mores and beliefs. And in non-Muslim countries, non-Muslims are expected to conform their behavior to Islamic mores and beliefs. Especially when that non-Muslim country is quickly becoming a Muslim country.

For those of us on this side of the pond, here’s a nifty primer on UK politics:

> Eventually, we’d had enough.. but there was no other serious movement on the right yet.. so we punished them with a historically low vote, removing them from power.

> This meant the mainstream left wing party won by default. But quickly realised all their ideas had been implemented..

> So now all they do is tinker at the edges and brutally crack down on anyone deemed to be problematic to the race communism revolution / replacement program.

So here we are.. patiently waiting for 2029 for our next vote.. as if in an orderly queue.. with a party in power that is the antithesis of what the majority of British people actually want.

Meanwhile the right is so unbelievably frustrated that it has fractured into 3 parties.

1) the original conservatives “we’re sorry we will definitely lower immigration this time.”

2) Reform : “anyone can be British as long as it’s legal – we just want to grow the economy and stop the illegals.”

3) Restore : “millions must go.”

All the Brits wanted was the nice country they’d always had, but that was too much for their so-called elites to bear.

Posted at 7:34 am by Stephen Green

ICYMI: I DID NOT EXPECT THIS:

Posted at 7:30 am by Glenn Reynolds

IMPORT ANTISEMITES, IMPORT ANTISEMITISM:

And vice versa.

Posted at 7:00 am by Glenn Reynolds

REFINERIES? WE DON’T NEED NO STINKING REFINERIES! £2 Diesel Disaster – Govt Missing in Action. A fracturing global diesel supply leaves the UK’s highly exposed diesel market facing crisis and a £2 per litre reality. Don’t let the Government turn a blind eye – support FairFuelUK’s call to action. £2 Diesel Disaster – Govt Missing in Action. A fracturing global diesel supply leaves the UK’s highly exposed diesel market facing crisis and a £2 per litre reality. Don’t let the Government turn a blind eye – support FairFuelUK’s call to action.

Posted at 6:32 am by Sarah Hoyt