August 3, 2026

DECOUPLING: The True Cost of Decoupling from China.

The EY study tallies the costs of Western investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and research and development at $23.6 trillion—a large headline number. But let’s add some context. Using simple assumptions of 2% U.S. GDP growth through 2050 and 1.5% GDP growth for Europe and the United Kingdom, total economic output from the West will reach more than $1.7 quadrillion in nominal dollars. In that case, $23.6 trillion turns out to be less than 1.5% of total GDP.

For further comparison, the U.S. will spend about 3% of its GDP on defense this year, while the European Union, where defense expenditures are rising, will spend more than 2%. If China remains America’s preeminent strategic competitor over the next several decades—a view that most U.S. foreign policy and elected officials share—spending about half of what we spend on defense in order to decouple from the Chinese Communist Party is not an unreasonable proposition.

Even that comparison is likely too generous. Most of what EY counts as the cost of decoupling is actually investment to produce goods needed to do so, such as mines, processing facilities, and electrical grid equipment. These investments would not only create resilience against China but would employ millions of our own people in construction and production.

Weighed against those potential costs, meanwhile, are the costs of not decoupling and instead maintaining today’s strategic dependencies.

Indeed.

Posted at 7:32 am by Stephen Green

REPRISALS WOULD BE A GOOD START:

Posted at 7:14 am by Ed Driscoll

THE VIDEO IS OF A CIVILIAN WHO STOPPED A WOULD-BE MASS SHOOTER IN IDAHO THIS WEEKEND:

And the question is valid.

Posted at 7:00 am by Glenn Reynolds

YOU VOTED FOR IT, NOW BEND OVER AND TAKE IT, GOOD AND HARD:  Liberal Podcaster Breaks With Mamdani After Finding Himself a Victim of His Socialist Policies.

Posted at 5:29 am by Sarah Hoyt

AS FROM THE RISE AND FALL OF ROME WE SHOULD TAKE LESSONS:  The Rise and Fall of Anthony Fauci.

The main lesson is that when such world-upending measures are being proposed each and every one of us should check the numbers and the facts. The reason I was the voice crying in the desert (with a few others, Roger among them, is that I looked at the numbers and the facts from the Diamond Princess and concluded “it’s a flu. Maybe a bad flu at most”. When I brought this up, people tried to make up reasons I was wrong which boiled down to “But the experts say”. Bah. Experts are corruptible and in this case corrupt. And probably engineering a psy-ops to cover a color revolution. But I read Heinlein in my formative years. I wish more people had.

“What are the facts? Again and again and again – what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history” – what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!” ― Robert Heinlein

Posted at 4:30 am by Sarah Hoyt

August 2, 2026

JOHN LUCAS: Negotiating with the Iranian scorpions. I think Trump is stringing them along, the way they’ve traditionally strung U.S. negotiators along. He knows they’ll break any agreement.

Posted at 9:39 pm by Glenn Reynolds

OPEN THREAD: Ring out the weekend.

Posted at 9:30 pm by Glenn Reynolds