THE NEW SPACE RACE: SpaceX no longer needs NASA, and that’s a problem for America’s space agency.
The signs point to at least a partial breakup. Consider the following data points:
SpaceX has told NASA it will stop flying Crew Dragon, the space agency’s only reliable astronaut transportation to the International Space Station, by or before 2030. Shotwell said in September that NASA should rely instead on Boeing for astronaut transportation. “We’re just gonna let them have some business,” she said of Boeing. “They should fly their capsule. The government paid a lot of money for that.” As a result, NASA is investing more in Boeing.
Ars reported in October that SpaceX had stopped selling commercial launches on the Falcon 9 rocket for missions after the year 2028.
SpaceX may also still stop flying Falcon 9 for NASA missions. In late October, during a meeting of NASA’s Safety Advisory Panel, Kent Rominger said if the US Deorbit Vehicle (a modified Dragon spacecraft) launches to the International Space Station after 2030, “it may require” a rocket other than the Falcon 9.
Politico reported last week that SpaceX told the US Space Force it would not bid on three new launch contracts in the late 2020s that would have gone above and beyond its existing commitments to the US military.
SpaceX previously provided “Rough Order of Magnitude” estimates, or ROMs, for launch costs to US companies building small landers for NASA’s Moon Base as part of the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program. But according to three sources, SpaceX recently told these lunar companies they will not provide launch services.
To be clear, SpaceX is still fulfilling its existing contracts with NASA, the US Space Force, and other government entities. And it continues to do so at a lower cost and generally higher level of reliability than pretty much anyone else.
But the company is no longer signing many large new contracts for spaceflight services, at least in the traditional launch and in-space flight domains.
A longer article, but I found it well worth my time.
Previously: How in the Actual Hell Can We Be Running Out of Space Rockets?