ABOUT THAT RECORD CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS: It might be entirely BS.

After customs announced the “historic surplus,” Chinese media began reporting widespread export fraud across multiple provinces. Shell companies were created solely to purchase fake export data from customs brokers. These fake numbers were then used to claim local government export subsidies.

Even worse?

Local governments weren’t just tolerating this — they were encouraging it.

Why?

Because Beijing demanded that provinces “stabilize exports” at all costs. And when real exports slowed under tariffs, the only way to hit targets was to manufacture numbers.

In many regions, the incentives were explicit: export $1 → get ¥0.03 in subsidies.

Export $100 million → collect ¥3 million. No real goods required.

More:

According to basic economics, a $1.2 trillion trade surplus means $1.2 trillion in foreign currency flowing into China. That money should appear somewhere:

• Central bank reserves
• Commercial bank FX deposits
• Higher imports
• Rising overseas investment
• Inflationary pressure

Instead, China saw:

• Deflation
• Weak consumption
• Stagnant imports
• No surge in FX reserves

In fact, official central bank data shows that foreign currency deposits rose by only ~$200 billion — nowhere near $1.2 trillion.

So where did the money go?

The uncomfortable answer: it never existed.

Full report on X.

China’s official import/export figures have been largely reliable (grading on the Communist curve, of course), but Grok had this to add: “The official Chinese data reports a record $1.19T trade surplus for 2025, with exports up 5.5% despite a ~19% drop to the US. However, analysts note discrepancies: FX reserves rose only ~$156B, not matching the surplus, possibly due to outflows. Reports from Chinese media and investigations reveal export data fraud via shell companies to claim subsidies, inflating figures. While not proven widespread, this raises questions about accuracy. Sources: Reuters, SAFE, SCMP.”

Stay tuned.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Aging Melba Toast Mobs Are Further Proof of Dems’ Irrelevance. “The American left is absolutely polluted with septuagenarian and octogenarian hippies who are disgruntled that all of their Ravi Shankar dreams from the 1960s didn’t come true. I live in a neighborhood full of them. They’re a prime source of shrieking bodies for Dem protests, which is becoming ever more important for our friends on the other side of the aisle.”

IRAN PROTESTS: Money – and the Lack of It – Can Change Everything.

What we haven’t covered is ‘the money’ and the bank crisis that many are saying precipitated this wholesale eruption in the streets to begin with. I thought I’d try to give you all a little of the background on that since we seem to be in somewhat of a news lull.

At one time, there was a bank in Iran called Ayandeh Bank. It was run by a man named Ali Ansari, a ‘well-connected’ Iranian businessman from one of the richest families in the country. Ansari had taken two state banks and merged them with a bank he already owned to form the new Ayandeh Bank. So, this is the first issue – this ‘new’ financial institution is run by nothing but cosy regime insiders.

According to the Wall Street Journal’s report, this Ayandeh Bank was a flashy self-lender and spender, and had plenty of help staying afloat using loans from the central state bank.

All good pyramid schemes, whether built on your own money or someone else’s, come to an end, and such was the case with Ayandeh Bank.

When the money runs out, a regime learns for sure who is committed to the cause and who was just paid off. If there’s a case where it wasn’t enough for the former and too many of the latter, I haven’t heard of it.

HOW WE LOST NUKE POWER AND WHY IT’S COMING BACK: Rod Martin lays out the whole story of how America led the world in developing safe, reliable, cheap peacetime nuclear power, but then allowed the Deep State to kill it. Here’s just a sample:

“It typical Deep State fashion, the NRC’s bureaucrats weaponized their political biases. They used fear to create demands for ‘safety’, and then turned ‘safety’ into a weapon against the very thing they were supposedly regulating.

“You can see it in the rules. Take the infamous Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model and its bastard child, ALARA — ‘As Low As Reasonably Achievable.’ In English, LNT says any amount of radiation is harmful; ALARA says regulators must drive that risk as close to zero as possible, no matter what that costs.

“Never mind that background radiation varies wildly around the planet with no corresponding cancer spike. Never mind that you get more radiation on a flight from New York to L.A. — or from eating a banana, or from shopping in New York’s Grand Central Station — than from living next to a nuclear plant for a year. Once LNT and ALARA hardened into doctrine, the NRC effectively gave itself a ‘zero bananas allowed’ mandate.”

But America’s nuke renaissance is at hand. There’s much more, just keep scrolling.

LOL: Tim Walz, Who Called ICE the ‘Modern-Day Gestapo,’ Tells Trump To ‘Turn the Temperature Down.’

MINNEAPOLIS MAYOR PARTYING LIKE IT’S 1859: ‘Fight ICE Agents in the Streets.’

Enter the escalator-in-chief, Minneapolis’ weasely mayor, Jacob Frey, who doubled down on the incendiary rhetoric, blaming Trump and ICE agents for doing their jobs in enforcing the nation’s immigration laws.

“Meanwhile, we have ICE agents throughout the city and throughout our state who, along with Border Patrol, are creating chaos,” Frey said. He called ICE’s operations in Minneapolis an invasion, like the actual invasion American towns and cities have been dealing with thanks to Democrats’ cynical open-border policies. Frey whined about what he asserts is Minneapolis’ inadequate police force (around 600 sworn officers), a problem that defund-the-police-pushing liberals in local government created when “mostly peaceful” protesters were burning down portions of the city in the last wave of manufactured riots.

And Frey said something very curious.

“We are in a position right now where we have residents who are asking the very limited number of police officers that we have to fight ICE agents on the street. To stand by their neighbors,” he said.

Hmmm? Are Minnesota police cooperating in what would clearly be an insurrection? More evidence in support of the president invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 to end the open rebellion against federal law enforcement.

The Minneapolis chief of police does quite a double take in response to Frey’s call that his men “fight ICE agents on the street:”

Minneapolis Mayor Frey wants police officers "to fight ICE agents on the streets."

The chief of police's reaction is priceless… pic.twitter.com/OxcULwM5qW

— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) January 15, 2026

Here’s another angle, showing the two men side by side:

Watch the Minneapolis police chief's reaction when Mayor Frey says he wants cops to "fight ICE agents in the street." pic.twitter.com/irZF7t56mC

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) January 15, 2026

ICYMI, IT’S MY THURSDAY ESSAY FOR VIP SUBSCRIBERS: One Thousand, Four Hundred, and Eighteen Days “After 1,418 days of fighting, Putin’s ever-changing set of generals has conquered an area a little smaller than South Carolina. Zhukov might have accomplished that on a Tuesday.”

ROGER KIMBALL: Why can’t Democrats speak frankly about Iran?

The only Democrats who seem willing to mention the plight of Iran’s protesters do so in order to compare what’s happening in Tehran to the ongoing anti-Trump brouhaha in Minneapolis – with the inevitable hashtag: “end authoritarianism.” “In Iran, brave protesters confront a far-right theocratic regime,” wrote Ken Martin, the chair (don’t call him man) of the Democratic party, on social media. “Here at home, tens of thousands are marching after the fatal ICE shooting of Renee Good – demanding justice, transparency and an end to an unchecked federal force that takes lives and tears families apart.” In case his moral equivalence wasn’t sufficiently odious the first time, Martin doubled down on Twitter/X: “If comparing the US to Iran makes you angry, ask why. Killing protesters. Crushing dissent. Kidnapping and disappearing legal citizens. Ignoring courts. Threatening critics. That’s authoritarian behavior – anywhere.”

Let’s not waste time explaining to Ken how the situation in Iran and Minnesota are not in any meaningful way similar. A more interesting comparison might be between the revolutionaries of 1970s Iran and the anti-ICE radicals of Minnesota today – two lots of fanatical zealots, hellbent on imposing their warped ideologies on everybody else.

Iran would be better off if they’d all been machine-gunned in the 1970s.

TEN YEARS GONE:

Shot: Iran’s Murderous Regime Is Irredeemable.

—New York Times editorial board column, Wednesday.

Chaser:

This particular Persian excursion, after all, is sponsored by none other than the New York Times, the esteemed paper of record that, in case you hadn’t noticed, is quickly transforming itself into a travel agency of some renown, offering an array of exhilarating (and expensive) cultural journeys for the sophisticated traveller.

Looking for a “people to people experience” in communist Cuba? The Times has you covered. Eager to help solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Ditto. Keen to “retrace the footsteps of some of the world’s greatest explorers” in Antarctica? There’s a trip for that. It’s not clear whose footsteps you’ll be retracing aboard the “297-foot luxury expedition yacht” the Times has commissioned, but why quibble? Rates start at $15,695. Carlos Slim must be loving this.

No Times Journey, as they’re called, is as popular as “Tales from Persia.” Ours is the inaugural voyage, but there’s been so much interest that they’ve already had to increase the number of offerings this year from three to five, all of which are sold out. At the end of the day, no one—not even the ayatollah—is going to f—k with the Times. That’s what you’re counting on, anyway. Although the Gray Lady has certainly gone to great lengths to ensure her release from liability:

Without limitation, we are not responsible for any injury, loss, or damage to personal property, death, delay or inconvenience in connection with the provision of any goods or services occasioned by or resulting from, but not limited to, acts of God, acts of government, weather, force majeure, acts of war or civil unrest, insurrection or revolt, strikes or other labor activities, criminal or terrorist activities or the threat thereof…

But even if it comes to that—getting yanked into a windowless room upon arrival at Imam Khomeini International Airport—you’ve settled on a failsafe strategy: blame everything on the Jews. Before you know it, your Qatar Airways flight to Tehran (connecting through Doha, site of the 2022 World Cup final) is preparing for takeoff. There’s a large compass displayed on a big screen at the front of the cabin. One arrow points towards Mecca, the holiest of Muslim holy sites, and another (for some reason) towards Gaithersburg, Md.

—Andrew Stiles, “What I Saw in Iran,” the Washington Free Beacon, March 30th, 2015.

LIGHTNING DEAL: Lefant Robot Vacuum and Mop. #CommissionEarned

CHRIS BRAY: The Culture War Has a Real Scoreboard, But It’s Hidden Behind the Fake Scoreboard “Now, the results: Paramount+ released the series premiere for free on YouTube, again sending out the signal for audiences to come watch the rest on their paid platform. Result: ‘Paramount spent between 6-10 million an episode on Star Trek: Starfleet Academy. They put the premier on YouTube for free and got 1300 live viewers.”

Not all is lost, though: “There are lots of scrappy multi-heritage lesbians and they fight a mean straight white man, which is stunning and brave. . . . It’s undergraduate story hour in space, subtly teaching empathy and Trump sucks, but on a starship.”

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS: Japan, Philippines sign new defence pacts amid surging China tensions.

The Philippines and Japan signed two defence pacts Thursday, including a deal allowing their forces to exchange supplies and services, the latest in a series of agreements aimed at countering China’s regional assertiveness.

Tokyo and Manila have significantly deepened military ties in recent years, joining a security partnership with Washington, and Japan supplying patrol boats and radio gear to the Philippines.

The Philippines and China have engaged in frequent clashes in the contested South China Sea, which Beijing claims in nearly its entirety despite an international court ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.

If Beijing doesn’t like old enemies allying against them, maybe they should try not being such asshoe.

ILYA SHAPIRO: The Supreme Court Goes Back to Biology Class: Oral arguments over state sports laws underscored the simple truth that sex categories exist for a reason.

SOMETIMES THE LEFT HAND DOESN’T KNOW WHAT THE FAR LEFT HAND IS DOING: Democrats Are Begging Radical Members Not To Revive the ‘Abolish ICE’ Craze. It’s Not Working.

Sensible Democrats who care about winning elections are begging their elected leaders to ignore the screeching activists who are (once again) hounding them to abolish ICE, the immigration enforcement agency.

It’s not going very well.

Two left-leaning advocacy groups published memos this week urging Democrats not to get swept up in the frenzy of anti-ICE rhetoric unleashed after an ICE officer shot and killed Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis. The Searchlight Institute, a think tank founded by former Sen. John Fetterman (D., Pa.) adviser Adam Jentleson, thought it was necessary to remind Democrats that “advocating for abolishing ICE is tantamount to advocating for stopping enforcement of all of our immigration laws,” a policy that is “wrong on the merits and at odds with the American public.”

Third Way, another moderate think tank, warned Democrats that caving to the “abolish ICE” mob would be politically “lethal” and squander “one of the clearest opportunities in years” for meaningful reform. That is precisely what happened in 2020, the group argued, when enough Democrats embraced (or refused to condemn) the activist-led campaign to “defund the police” following George Floyd’s death. “We shouldn’t be the party against enforcement entirely,” Third Way wrote on X.

The rhetoric on the left could get even zanier:

If you were to pin Walz or Omar or any of them down in an interview, their answers would eventually land on this, but we have a media that not only refuses to do that, but agrees with them.

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) January 15, 2026

(Classical allusion in headline.)

THIS IS THE RESULT OF CODDLING MALE PREDATORS INSTEAD OF JAILING THEM: Threats so Severe That Riley Gaines Says She Armors Her Infant Daughter.

AN IDEA SO CRAZY IT JUST MIGHT WORK:  Pentagon to ‘refocus’ military newspaper Stars and Stripes away from ‘woke distractions’ .

HMM. HOW CONVENIENT. James Pethokoukis: Humanoid robots arrive just as humans stop showing up.

THEY’RE HOLDING RESIDENTS HOSTAGE:   The disturbing reason Iran appears to have stopped slaughtering protesters.

Mr President? Thank you for your attention to this matter.

HARD LESSONS, BUT IMPORTANT ONES:  Don’t trust your doctor . . . and the other lessons covid taught me.

SO THIS IS FUNNY: TRUMP ALWAYS SEEMS TO WIN IN COURTS THAT FOLLOW THE LAW:   Appeals Court Just Handed the Trump Administration Major Victory in Mahmoud Khalil’s Case.

PRIVATE PROPERTY RIGHTS? THAT’S A HUGE IMPEDIMENT TO DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM!  Cea Weaver Identifies the ‘Huge Problem’ Obstructing Her Communist Housing Agenda, and Guess What It Is.

IF THEY DIDN’T HAVE DOUBLE STANDARDS, THEY’D HAVE NO STANDARDS AT ALL:  Remember When CNN Did Ride-Alongs With ICE? Here’s the (D)ifference.

AS THEY SHOULD:   Feds Sue Minnesota Over Discriminatory ‘Affirmative Action Regime’.

IT WAS ALWAYS A GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZED BOONDOGGLE:  Net Zero Goes Sub-Zero: Investors Flee Climate Craze as Clean-Tech Venture Cash Drops Almost 50%.

THEREBY SLAPPING THE NOBEL COMMITTEE IN THE FACE:  Machado Presented Trump With Her Nobel Peace Prize.

Which, after their farcical award of a Nobel peace prize to the despicable Obama before he did anything, is the least they deserve. A series of kicks in the rear all around the major capitals of Europe is more like what they need.